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Evolution of the NOL Could Affect Future NCUSIF Payouts

first_imgCredit unions will receive an equity distribution from the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF) for the second year in a row, but the prospect for future payouts is uncertain. Much will depend on whether, and how quickly, the normal operating level (NOL) returns to its traditional level of 1.30 percent.Based on the NCUA’s final 2018 NCUSIF audit, the equity ratio on insured shares stands at 1.39 percent – higher than the current NOL of 1.38 percent. During its December meeting, the NCUA Board approved a decrease of the NCUSIF NOL from 1.39 to 1.38 percent, effective immediately.The latest figures for the Share Insurance Fund reflect the impact of a number of notable recent events, including: the merger of the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund (TCCUSF, or Stabilization Fund) with the SIF in October 2017; an increase in loss reserves from $286 million to over $925 million in the fourth quarter of 2017; the announcement of a $736 million distribution to insured credit unions in February 2018; and the failures of several credit unions with concentrated holdings of taxi medallion loans in 2018. Background on the NOLThe NOL functions as a ceiling for the amount of equity held in the SIF. If the equity ratio ends the year above the NOL, NCUA must provide a distribution to credit unions in the amount of the surplus equity. On the other hand, NCUA may charge a premium if the equity ratio drops below 1.3 percent and must charge a premium or establish a restoration plan if the equity ratio drops below 1.2 percent. If a premium is charged, the amount of the premium is at NCUA’s discretion, but it must return the equity ratio to at least 1.2 percent and no more than 1.3 percent.In 2017, NCUA merged the TCCUSF with the SIF and also raised the NOL from 1.3 percent, where it had historically been, to 1.39 percent. The increase in the NOL effectively reduced the amount of the 2018 SIF distribution to credit unions by roughly $1 billion. NCUA justified the increase on the grounds that a higher NOL was needed to absorb the projected loss of equity that would accompany a moderate recession over a five-year period. Based on NCUA’s forecasts and using the NOL as a starting point, a moderate recession would lead to a loss of equity that would drop the equity ratio to 1.2 percent over five years. NCUA’s selection of an NOL is intended to prevent the need to charge a premium in the event that their scenario plays out. Using the 2017 NOL of 1.39 percent as an example, NCUA forecasted losses equal to 19 basis points of insured shares over the following five years assuming recessionary conditions.NAFCU Fights for Credit UnionsThe increase in the NOL was a key concern for NAFCU at the time that NCUA’s merger plan was proposed and was a major reason why NAFCU ultimately opposed the merger. A 1.30 percent NOL has proven to be adequate for the SIF to absorb the stress of a recession. Since Congress established the NOL as the de facto cap on the SIF in 1984, the NCUA Board maintained it at no more than 1.30 percent until 2018. In raising the NOL to an unprecedented level, NCUA provided no assurances or timeline for unwinding it. NAFCU remains opposed to the increase in the NOL, and strongly believes that the nearly $1 billion of additional equity that currently resides in the SIF due to the elevated NOL could be put to better use by credit unions in the service of their members.At its December Board meeting, NCUA announced a reduction in the NOL for 2018 to 1.38 percent. NAFCU is pleased that this policy change could potentially mean more funds returned to credit unions in 2019. However, there is still no compelling reason why the NOL should be above 1.30 percent.  Moreover, a reduction of just one basis point inspires little confidence that the agency views 1.30 percent as a “normal” NOL to be targeted under typical conditions. Rather, it appears likely that the NOL is permanently unmoored from its traditional level. Read more of NAFCU’s detailed analysis and forecast of the SIF. Learn Your NCUSIF DistributionCredit unions can learn the amount of the distribution they will receive from the NCUSIF in 2019 with NAFCU’s updated SIF calculator, which is available for members to download. The calculator reflects the latest figures shared during the NCUA board meeting on March 7, 2019. ShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,Curt Long Curt Long was named director of research and chief economist in August 2014. In this role, he serves as the association’s chief economic analyst, conducting economic and financial policy … Web: www.nafcu.org Detailslast_img read more

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Japanese companies hold firm on investment plans in Indonesia despite drop in sales, production

first_imgHowever, despite plunging sales and production rates, 69 percent of respondents remained confident about their future investment strategies in Indonesia. Only 15 percent intended to slash their future investments amid the current economic woes.“Many Japanese companies still see Indonesia as a potential market. While it’s true that demand is decreasing in the short term, consumption will return in the long run,” JETRO senior director Wataru Ueno told reporters during an online briefing on Tuesday.The coronavirus outbreak, which was first detected in China, has put a strain on Indonesia’s foreign direct investment, partially due to the social restrictions implemented to contain the spread of the virus. Indonesia booked a 9.2 percent year-on-year (yoy) decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) to Rp 98 trillion (US$6.8 billion) in the first quarter of 2020.Japan was the fourth largest contributor of foreign investment to Indonesia in the first quarter of the year, investing $604.2 million. Last year, it invested a total of $4.3 billion, making it the third-largest foreign investor overall, trailing China and Singapore, Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) data show. Of all sectors, the transportation and machinery industries have felt the biggest impact, with 82 percent of companies in the sectors seeing a drop of more than 50 percent in sales compared to before the pandemic. In total, 97 percent of manufacturers in the sector have reduced their production rates, in compliance with the social restrictions imposed in several regions.Indonesia’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a gauge of the nation’s manufacturing activities, hit 39.1 points in June, rebounding from 28.6 the previous month, but still far below the 50-point benchmark that indicates growth, according to market consultancy firm IHS Markit.To survive the current crisis, Japanese companies are utilizing the government’s tax incentive programs, such as the individual income tax exemption, as well as corporate income tax and import income tax incentives.Previously, the Taxation Directorate General announced it had agreed to grant tax incentives to 360,818 individual and corporate tax payers.Ueno said the majority of Japanese companies expected further tax relaxation measures to be taken if pressures on domestic consumption continued, as well as government-backed compensation to be provided for their employees.“We understand the government is currently in a tough situation. However, support from the Indonesian government is extremely important for Japanese companies,” he said.The government has allocated Rp 695.2 trillion in COVID-19 relief spending to boost the economy and strengthen the healthcare system. This includes Rp 120.61 trillion to provide tax refunds for individuals and businesses affected by the pandemic.As companies are betting on long-term growth, Ueno said swift government action was needed to ensure consumption rebounded in 2020.“If demand fails to recover this year, it’s going to be a tough situation for all companies including Japanese companies in Indonesia,” he said.Previously, Singapore’s largest bank, DBS, stated that Indonesia was still among the preferred Southeast Asian markets for investment, backed by strong household spending and a young working population.In a report titled CIO Insights 3Q20 released on June 29, DBS noted that the country would quickly return to normalcy after the relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions, while household spending – which accounts for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP) – would continue to drive the recovery.“The investment strength in Indonesia lies in its favorable demographics. Indonesia is the third-most populous country in Asia, the fourth globally, and has a high proportion of young working adults,” the report reads.Topics : Japanese companies operating in Indonesia will stick to their future investment plans, despite declines in sales and production due to the ongoing health crisis, a survey conducted by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) has shown.The JETRO survey, which illustrates the impact the pandemic has had on more than 350 Japan-based companies operating in Indonesia, shows that due to the pandemic, 80 percent of the companies have seen a decrease in sales, with 37 percent stating their sales had fallen to half their normal levels in this year’s second quarter.Facing such significant declines, 80 percent of the companies surveyed have reduced their production in Indonesia.last_img read more

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All you need to know about the player Man United could sign ahead of Pogba

first_imgFootball statistics experts WhoScored.com assess the merits of Manchester United making a move for Monaco defender Fabinho. Read all about it, below, then check out WhoScored’s Man United stats page.Much of Manchester United’s summer dealings have been dominated by the arrival of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. A world record deal to re-sign Paul Pogba is now the priority but their business doesn’t look set to finish there. Eric Bailly joined as Jose Mourinho’s first signing as United manager and it could be another defender that concludes their business before the new season starts next month.Understandably lost in the media coverage of United’s pursuit of Pogba, Mourinho’s side are also reportedly plotting a £25m move for Monaco’s versatile right-back Fabinho. Despite boasting the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League last season (35 goals conceded), their defence has been a cause for concern. Bailly’s arrival has seemingly put an end to Daley Blind’s spell at centre-back, while signing Fabinho would mark United’s latest attempt at resolving an issue they’ve had at right-back since Gary Neville retired in 2011. Matteo Darmian was last season’s solution but his own future is up in the air following an unconvincing debut campaign, while Antonio Valencia and Phil Jones are simply not right-backs. Instead, Mourinho has reportedly earmarked Fabinho as a potential target to complete what has already been a sensational window for the Red Devils. Given the type of defenders Mourinho has gravitated towards during his career, it is no surprise that at 6ft 2in, Fabinho has caught the eye of the United manager. Mourinho would have also caught glimpses of Fabinho during the 12 months he spent on loan with the Madrid Castilla squad in the 2012/13 campaign during Mourinho’s final year as Madrid manager. Fabinho even earned his only appearance for the senior team in one of Mourinho’s final games in charge, registering an assist in a 14-minute cameo during Madrid’s 6-2 win over Malaga.The European champions opted against keeping the then teenager before Claudio Ranieri’s Monaco swooped. The 22-year-old has gone from strength-to-strength ever since. No current Monaco player has secured a higher WhoScored.com rating over the last two Ligue 1 campaigns than Fabinho (7.4). With age and experience, Fabinho’s all-round performances have significantly improved. Fabinho has always presented a threat going forward but his end-product in the final third was often found wanting in his first two years at Monaco. The fact he failed to register a single assist in the league during that time would suggest the criticism was well placed. However, last season Fabinho played a direct hand in 10 league goals (six goals, four assists), with half of those coming in his 18 appearances at right-back.Getting forward and supporting attacks also means that Fabinho attracts fouls. Only Bernando Silva (77) was fouled more times for Monaco in the league last season and Fabinho’s physical prowess would also add another dimension to United’s attack. With Chris Smalling the only player that offered any serious aerial threat, only Stoke (6) scored fewer goals from set-pieces than United (7) in the Premier League last season. It’s an area where United need to significantly improve and something Fabinho could contribute towards.While Fabinho’s blistering runs forward may be one of his most eye-catching qualities, the Brazil international is extremely diligent in his duties at the back. He has completed more tackles and interceptions combined than any other Monaco player in the last three years (483), accentuating his statistically calculated WhoScored.com strengths of ‘tackling’ and ‘concentration’. Not only that but he has also won possession more times in the defensive third than any other teammate (282).There is also another common denominator between Mourinho and Fabinho in that both are represented by Jorge Mendes, an agent United are already very much in bed with. United are yet to do business with Mendes this summer, but that could all be about to change. 1 Fabinho in action for Monaco against Crystal Palace last_img read more

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